左兜进右兜
右兜聚焦美股市场：研报解读、技术分析、交易逻辑。 不追热点，只讲有价值的思考。 经历过辉煌与低谷，如今更懂得如何在市场中寻找确定性。
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 298 | Founded | a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | BusinessTechnology |
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想象一下：50岁，破产负债，管理的基金一年跌去53% ，客户的钱和自己的身家都腰斩 。
在人生的中场，他几乎失去了一切。
他是怎么做到的？在最黑暗的时刻，他是如何做出那三个关键选择，不仅站了起来，还用了近五十年 的时间，从一无所有，走到二十亿美元的财富巅峰 ？
本期内容，就是查理·芒格对所有人的一段亲述：失败不是终点，而是转折点 。他将毫无保留地分享，他从破产中学到了哪些不亏钱的投资铁律 ，以及那句改变他一生的投资哲学。
现在，让我们一起走进这个关于耐心、反思与选择的故事..."
如果... more
过去一段时间，我系统性读完了 16 份全球一线金融机构关于 2026 年的 Year Ahead / Outlook 研报。
机构包括 UBS、BofA、摩根士丹利、高盛、摩根大通、巴克莱，以及 Jefferies、CIO 私行体系等。
在正式展开之前，我先说一个我读完这 16 份研报后，最强烈的感受。
这些机构看起来观点各异，但它们其实在做同一件事：
不再押 2026 年“宏观往哪走”，而是统一转向一个问题——
过去几年被市场反复讲述的那些故事，谁真的能兑现成盈利。
换句话说，202... more
在这期播客里，我们继续和大家分享瑞银（UBS）对 2026 年全球市场的判断。第一部分可回翻11月27日那期节目。
前一部分，我们聊的是宏观环境和区域配置；这一期，重点放在瑞银 12 月 16 日发布的第二部分展望——风格、主题与行业结构。
瑞银并不认为市场已经走到趋势反转的位置，但他们明确指出，过去两年那种“只要站在对的方向上就能赚钱”的阶段，正在结束。接下来的市场，更像是一轮高度分化的结构行情。
在这期节目中，我们会聊到几个关键问题：
科技板块为什么仍然重要，但已经不能再一起买；
AI... more
上周，甲骨文和博通同时出现明显回调，引发市场对 AI 基础设施主线是否动摇的讨论。
但几乎在同一时间，UBS 接连发布最新研报，对这两家公司均维持“买入”评级。这种股价走势与卖方观点之间的分歧，本身就值得深入拆解。
本期节目，我们不聊短期涨跌，而是从两份 UBS 研报出发，系统梳理市场真正的焦虑点：
为什么博通的争议集中在毛利率结构，而不是 AI 需求？
为什么甲骨文订单庞大，但市场开始对兑现节奏失去耐心？
以及，当 AI 叙事进入“兑现期”，投资者该如何理解这种波动？
这是一期关于分歧、... more
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